Today’s increasing complex economic and social challenges are reflected in the delicate balancing acts required to tackle structural issues of national scope against pressures from global factors. The sixth annual research conference jointly organized by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) will focus on reviewing the effectiveness of traditional policy making strategies and tools and evaluation of possible alternatives in both monetary and fiscal areas.
The two-day event will feature keynotes, policy panels and presentations of research papers in online format. Confirmed keynote speakers are Alan Blinder (Princeton University) and Mikhail Golosov (University of Chicago).
We apply facial recognition analysis to FOMC press conference videos, and quantify one of the most important aspects of nonverbal communication — facial expressions. Using minute-level data, we align our nonverbal communication measure with a set of financial assets to estimate the impact of the Federal Reserve Chairs’ facial expressions on investor expectations. We find that investors adversely react to negative expressions revealed during the press conference, even when controlling for the verbal component of the press conference and additional explanatory variables. The effect is heightened in meetings that draw more attention and when forward guidance is discussed.
Increasing the diversity of policy committees has taken centre stage worldwide. While the equital and ethical reasons are beyond dispute, the economic motivations and effects of more diverse policy committees are still elusive. In this paper, we design a randomized control trial to test whether diversity of policy committees increases consumers’ trust in such committees and the committees ability to manage consumers’ beliefs and hence choices. To this aim, we vary randomly consumers’ awareness of minority representation in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the main monetary policy body in the US. White women and African American men trust the FOMC more and update their unemployment expectations more in line with FOMC forecasts after being made aware of the presence of underrepresented demographic groups in the FOMC. Only African American women—who are not represented in the FOMC—do not react to making them aware of the representation of (other) minorities on the FOMC. Overrepresented groups, such as White men, do not react negatively to awareness of minority representation and reactions do not vary across political affiliations. Our findings suggest that more diverse policy committee might increase policy effectiveness by managing the expectations and trust of underrepresented consumers more effectively while at the same time maintaining their ability to manage overrepresented groups’ expectations.
This paper considers the performance of average inflation targeting (AIT) policy in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning agents. Our analysis raises concerns regarding robustness of AIT when agents have imperfect knowledge. In particular, the target steady state can be locally unstable under learning if details about the policy are not publicly available. Near the low steady state with interest rates at the zero lower bound, AIT does not necessarily outperform a standard inflation targeting policy. Policymakers can improve outcomes under AIT by (i) targeting a discounted average of inflation, or (ii) communicating the data window for the target.
Using a daily survey of U.S. households, we study how the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its new strategy of average inflation targeting affected households’ expectations. Starting with the day of the announcement, there is a very small uptick in the minority of households reporting that they had heard news about monetary policy relative to prior to the announcement, but this effect fades within a few days. Those hearing news about the announcement do not seem to have understood the announcement: they are no more likely to correctly identify the Fed’s new strategy than others, nor are their expectations different. When we provide randomly selected households with pertinent information about average inflation targeting, their expectations still do not change in a different way than when households are provided with information about traditional inflation targeting.
Understanding gross capital flows is increasingly viewed as crucial for both macroeconomic and financial stability policies, but theory is lagging behind many key policy debates. We fill this gap by developing a two-country DSGE model that tracks domestic and cross-border gross positions between banks and households, with explicit settlement of all transactions through banks. We formalise the conceptual distinction between cross-border saving and financing, which often move in opposite directions in response to shocks. This matters for at least four policy debates. First, current accounts are poor indicators of financial vulnerability, because in a crisis, creditors stop financing debt rather than current accounts, and because following a crisis, current accounts are not the primary channel through which balance sheets adjust. Second, we reinterpret the global saving glut hypothesis by arguing that US households do not finance current account deficits with foreigners’ physical saving, but with digital purchasing power, created by banks that are more likely to be domestic than foreign. Third, Triffin’s current account dilemma is not in fact a dilemma, because the creation of additional US dollars requires dollar credit creation by US and non-US banks rather than US current account deficits. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed high correlation of gross capital inflows and outflows is overwhelmingly an automatic consequence of double entry bookkeeping, rather than the result of two separate sets of economic decisions.
We quantify global US monetary policy spillovers by employing a high-frequency identification and big data techniques, in conjunction with a large harmonised data-set covering 30 economies. We report three novel stylised facts. First, a US monetary policy tightening has large contractionary effects onto both advanced and emerging economies. Second, flexible exchange rates cannot fully insulate domestic economies, due to movements in risk premia that limit central banks’ ability to control the yield curve. Third, financial channels dominate over demand and exchange rate channels in the transmission to real variables, while the transmission via oil and commodity prices determines nominal spillovers.
The notion that flexible exchange rates insulate a country from foreign shocks is well grounded in theory, from the classics (Meade, 1951; Friedman 1953), to the more recent open economy literature (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2000). We confront it with new evidence from Europe. Specifically, we study how shocks that originate in the euro area spill over to its neighboring countries. We exploit the variation of the exchange rate regime across time and countries to assess whether the regime alters the spillovers: it does not—flexible exchange rates fail to provide insulation against euro area shocks. This result is robust across a number of specifications and holds up once we control for global financial conditions. We show that the workhorse open-economy model can account for the lack of insulation under a float, assuming that central banks respond to headline consumer price inflation. However, it remains puzzling that policy makers are ready to forego stabilization of economic activity to the extent we found in the data.
We provide novel empirical evidence that firms’ investment is more responsive to surprise changes in monetary policy when a higher fraction of their debt is due. In a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with financial frictions and endogenous debt maturity, two channels explain this finding: (1.) Firms with more maturing debt roll over more debt and are therefore more exposed to fluctuations in the real interest rate (roll-over risk). (2.) These firms have higher default risk and therefore react more strongly to fluctuations in the real burden of outstanding nominal debt (debt overhang). The aggregate effectiveness of monetary policy therefore depends on the joint distribution of debt maturity and default risk across firms.
Using a representative consumer survey in the U.S., we elicit beliefs about the economic impact of climate change. Respondents perceive a high probability of costly, rare disasters in the near future due to climate change, but not much of an impact on GDP growth. Salience of rare disasters through media coverage increases the disaster probability by up to 7 percentage points. We analyze these findings through the lens of a New Keynesian model with rare disasters. First, we illustrate how expectations of rare disasters impact economic activity. Second, we calibrate the model to capture the key aspects of the survey and quantify the expectation channel of climate change: disaster expectations lower the natural rate of interest by about 65 basis points and, assuming a conventional Taylor rule for monetary policy, inflation and the output gap by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. The effect is considerably stronger if monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound.
The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs of climate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate is the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to a decrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of this decline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRs in recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantially boosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social cost of carbon.
The effects of an announcement of future government spending changes on economic activity vary according to the monetary-fiscal regime in place. While once implemented, an increase in public expenditures is always expansionary, its announcement has opposite effects in the monetary regime, where it is contractionary, and in the fiscal regime, where it is expansionary. Anticipation effects can help to empirically distinguish between the two regimes. The data support this robust theoretical implication, reconciling conflicting results in the empirical literature, that disappear conditioning the estimates on the existing monetary-fiscal policy mix. Furthermore, these results suggest that it could be (un)wise to anticipate future fiscal policies, depending on the regime in place.
We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework featuring interaction between two empirically relevant goods market frictions: idle productive capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of economic fluctuations determines the cyclicality of fiscal multipliers. Policies that stimulate aggregate demand, such as government spending and consumption tax cuts, have multipliers that are large in demand-driven recessions, but small and possibly negative in supply-driven downturns. On the other hand, policies that boost aggregate supply, such as cuts in taxes on labor income and firms’ payroll and sales, are ineffective in demand-driven recessions, but powerful if the downturn is driven by supply factors. Spending austerity, implemented by a reduction in government consumption, can be the policy with the largest multiplier in severe supply-side recessions and demand-driven booms, provided elasticities of labor demand and supply are sufficiently low. We obtain model-free empirical support for our theoretical predictions by using a novel econometric specification that allows us to estimate spending and tax cut multipliers in recessionary and expansionary episodes, conditional on those being either demand- or supply-driven.
Philippe Andrade is a senior economist and policy advisor in the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department. He joined the Boston Fed in 2019 after serving as the head of the Monetary Policy Division at the Banque de France. Previously, he held senior economist positions at the European Central Bank and at Banque de France. His research interests include macroeconomics and monetary economics, in particular the formation of macroeconomic expectations and their contribution to the transmission of monetary policy and to macroeconomic fluctuations. He has published articles in journals such as the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Monetary Economics. He earned a PhD in economics from Université Paris Nanterre.
Nicolas Aragon received his Ph.D in Economics from the European University Institute, and has a bachelor in economics from National University of La Plata, in Argentina. He is currently a researcher in the National Bank of Ukraine.
Guido Ascari is Professor of Economics at Oxford University and Professor of Economics at the University of Pavia. He held a PhD from Warwick University and a Research Doctorate from the University of Pavia. His main research interests are: monetary economics, monetary and fiscal policy interaction and inflation dynamics.
Michael Bauer is a Professor of Financial Economics in the Department of Economics of the Universität Hamburg. His research focuses on the interactions of financial markets with the macroeconomy and monetary policy. He is particularly interested in trying to understand the effects of monetary policy actions on financial markets, including the unconventional policies that central banks started implementing during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, like asset purchases and forward guidance. His work has been published in leading economics journals including the American Economic Review, the Review of Financial Studies, and the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. Michael obtained his Ph.D. in Economics at the University of California, San Diego, where Jim Hamilton was his doctoral adviser, and his B.A. in Economics and M.A. in Quantitative Economics and Finance from the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland.
Carola Binder is an economics professor at Haverford College. She is an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking and has published numerous papers in journals including the Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, International Journal of Central Banking, and Explorations in Economic History. Her research areas include inflation expectations and central bank communication.
Alan S. Blinder is the Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University, and a regular columnist for the Wall Street Journal. Blinder served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from June 1994 until January 1996. Before becoming a member of the Board, Blinder served as a member of President Clinton’s original Council of Economic Advisers from January 1993 until June 1994. During presidential campaigns, he was an economic advisor to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and Hilary Clinton. Blinder has written scores of scholarly articles, and is the author or co-author of 21 books, including the prize-winning best-seller, After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead. His latest book, Advice and Dissent: Why America Suffers When Economics and Politics Collide, was published in 2018. Blinder earned his A.B. at Princeton University, M.Sc. at London School of Economics, and Ph.D. at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Olivier Coibion is a Professor of Economics at The University of Texas at Austin. He received a BA in Economics and Political Economy from the University of California at Berkeley (1999) and a PhD from the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor (2007). He works on macroeconomic topics, including monetary policy, how agents for their expectations, inflation measurement, commodity prices, inequality, the efficacy of stimulus payments, and policy communication. Prior to joining UT Austin, Olivier worked at the International Monetary Fund, the Council of Economic Advisers, the Brookings Institution, and the College of William and Mary. He is also affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Mihnea Constantinescu is Head of Research at the National Bank of Ukraine, Lecturer at CUREM - University of Zurich and Visiting Scholar at the Kyiv School of Economics. His experience includes a range of professional roles in managerial and executive positions at various seniority levels in finance, real estate and central banking.
Polish lawyer and economist, professor at the Warsaw School of Economics. He graduated from the Warsaw School of Economics and the Faculty of Law and Administration at the University of Warsaw. In 2006–2007 served as Deputy Minister of the Treasury of Republic of Poland. Works at the Warsaw School of Economics, where he heads the Department of Monetary Economics. Editor-in-chief of the scientific journal "Bank i Kredyt" and from 2019 director of the Department of Research and Financial Innovation at National Bank of Poland.
Mikhail Golosov is a professor of economics at the University of Chicago. He has also held positions at Princeton University, Yale University and the Massachussetts Institute of Technology. He is currently co-editor of the American Economic Review. Dr. Golosov was awarded the Sloan Research Fellowship as well as the National Science Foundation CAREER Grant. His is a fellow of the Econometric Society and a distinguished CESifo affiliate. His research covers topics in macroeconomics, public finance and political economy.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, a native of Ukraine, is a professor at the Department of Economics, University of California — Berkeley. He received his BA and MA at EERC/Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (Kyiv, Ukraine) and his PhD at the University of Michigan. A significant part of his research has been about monetary policy (effects, optimal design, inflation targeting), fiscal policy (countercyclical policy, government spending multipliers), taxation (tax evasion, inequality), economic growth (long-run determinants, globalization, innovation, financial frictions), and business cycles. Yuriy serves on many editorial boards, including the Journal of Monetary Economics and VoxUkraine (www.voxukraine.org). Yuriy is a prolific researcher. His work was published in leading economics journals (e.g., American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies) and was cited in policy discussions and media. Mr Gorodnichenko has received numerous awards for his research.
Francois Gourio is a senior economist and research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Previously, he was an associate professor of economics at Boston University, a faculty research fellow of the NBER, and a founding board member of the Macro-Finance Society. He specializes in macroeconomics and finance, particularly investment, asset prices, and firm dynamics.
Koba Gvenetadze, Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of Georgia, Governor since 2016. He held position of Economic Adviser at investment banking and management services company “Galt & Taggart” (2015-2016). He worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in Washington D.C. as Senior Economist of Middle East and Central Asia Department (2002-2015), including serving as resident representative of the IMF in Azerbaijan and the Kyrgyz Republic. He held positions of Deputy State Minister (2001-2002) and Deputy Finance Minister of Georgia (2000-2001). In different years he worked for the National Bank of Georgia as a Senior Economist and for the local office of the International Monetary Fund as an Economist. Mr. Gvenetadze is a graduate of Tbilisi State University, Department of Finances and Credit. He also graduated from American University, Washington DC, USA in 2000 with a Master of Arts degree in Economics. Global Finance ranked Koba Gvenetadze among the Best Central Bankers in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Marek Jarociński is a Principal Economist in the Directorate General Research of the European Central Bank. His research in macroeconomics and econometrics has been published among others in the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Journal of Econometrics, The Review of Economics and Statistics and Journal of International Economics. He holds a PhD in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.
Nina Karnaukh is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Ohio State University, where she teaches International Finance. She joined Fisher in 2017. During 2015-2017, she was a visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania and University of Chicago. She earned her Ph.D. in Finance from the University of St. Gallen (2011-2017). Her thesis on exchange rates, monetary policy, and liquidity got the prize for the best dissertation in PhD Program in Economics and Finance. Nina is originally from Kyiv, Ukraine. She holds a Bachelor's and Master's Degree in Computer Science from the Kyiv Polytechnic University (2005-2011). Nina's paper on foreign exchange market liquidity was published in the Review of Financial Studies. In her research, Nina Karnaukh is aiming to understand (1) what is the role of monetary policy and macroeconomics for asset prices, (2) how different asset markets incorporate the information, (3) the role of media and influencers in the markets and society.
Sophia is currently a Sr. Quantitative Analyst within the Supervision, Regulation and Credit (QSR) department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Prior to joining the Richmond Fed, Sophia worked at the University of Houston, teaching courses in economics. She received her bachelor’s degree from the Tel Aviv University (Tel-Aviv, Israel), and earned her doctoral degree in economics from the University of Houston (Houston, TX). Sophia’s research interests focus on central bank communication, natural language processing (NLP) techniques, as well as banking and financial stability. In her current role, she works on financial institutions’ quantitative surveillance.
Marta Kightley - NBP Vice President – First Deputy President, Professor at the Department of Political Economy, Law and Economic Policy of the Warsaw School of Economics.
In 2007–2010, she was a member of the diplomatic service. She headed the political and economic department of the Polish Embassy in the Republic of Korea.
A long-time member of the NBP Education Council and of the Jury of the NBP Władysław Grabski Competition for Best Economic Journalist.
On 28 February 2020, President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda, at the request of the President of Narodowy Bank Polski, appointed Marta Kightley member of the NBP Management Board as of 8 March 2020.
Oleksiy Kryvtsov is the Senior Research Officer in the Economic and Financial Research Department. His research interests center on business cycle fluctuations, with a special focus on monetary theory and policy. Oleksiy contributed to topics including consumer price behaviour, real effects of monetary policy shocks, dynamics of markups and costs over the business cycle.
Oleksiy received his PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota in 2004.
Dr Nguyen is a Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and an Associate Professor of Economics at Santa Clara University. She has worked on fiscal policy and open economy topics.
In 2004, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi joined the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) as an economist responsible for forecasting money market performance. From 2008 to 2019, he worked as the head of division, deputy head of office, head of the Office for Monetary Policy Strategy, Deputy Director of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department. In December 2019, Volodymyr was appointed as a Director of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department. He has contributed to implementing inflation targeting regime in Ukraine, elaborating strategic documents on monetary policy and developing a rules-based monetary policy framework.
Volodymyr graduated from Kyiv National Economic University with MA degree (with honors) in Finance (2004). He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Ukrainian Academy of Banking. Has published extensively on monetary, macroeconomic, and modeling issues.
Jesper Lindé defended his PhD-thesis in empirical macroeconomics at the Stockholm School of Economics in 1999. Between 1999-2008 Lindé worked at Sveriges Riksbank, first as research economist and then as head of the monetary policy modelling unit. Between 2008-2014, Lindé worked as Section chief in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, DC. In 2014, Lindé returned to the Riksbank as Head of Research, a position he held until August 2019 when he took up his current position as advisor at the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Division. His research is focused on the effects of monetary, macroprudential and fiscal policies, and he has recently published papers on the effects of fiscal policy in liquidity traps and currency unions in leading academic outlets like the American Economic Review, the Journal of the European Economic Association, the European Economic Review, and the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Lindé is also a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Krzysztof Makarski is a Head of Applied Research Division at Narodowy Bank Polski and an Associate Professor at Warsaw School of Economics and. He received his Ph.D. from University of Minnesota. His research focuses on macroeconomics, monetary policy and public economics. His work was published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Financial Stability, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Economic Inequality, and other academic journals.
Dmitry Matveev is a Principal Researcher in the Monetary Policy and Financial Studies Division of the Canadian Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. He obtained his PhD at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and was a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Department of Economics at the University of Mannheim.
Nigel McClung is a Research Economist at the Bank of Finland’s Monetary Policy and Research Department. His research interests include macroeconomics, learning, and monetary-fiscal policy interactions. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oregon in 2018.
Matthias Meier is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Mannheim. He graduated from the University of Bonn with a Ph.D. in Economics in 2017. His research focuses on macroeconomics and econometrics.
Gernot Müller is Professor of Economics at University of Tübingen and a CEPR Research Fellow. He holds a PhD from the European University Institute in Florence. His research focuses on monetary and fiscal policy, in particular in an open economy context.
Walker Ray is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance at the London School of Economics.
Giovanni Ricco is an associate professor in economics at the University of Warwick. He is also a Chercheur Associé at OFCE Sciences Po, a CEPR Research Affiliate and ERSA International Research Fellow. He has obtained his PhD in Economics at the London Business School.
Alexander Rodnyansky is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Cambridge, a research affiliate of the CEPR, and a member of the CFM. Alexander is also the former chief economic adviser to the Prime Minister of Ukraine (2019-2020), and a current Presidential economic adviser (2020-). Alexander received his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 2017 and joined Cambridge shortly thereafter. Alexander's main research fields are empirical macroeconomics and finance, and international finance.
Raphael Schoenle is the deputy director of the Center for Inflation Research and a senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He is also a tenured associate professor of economics in the Department of Economics and the International Business School at Brandeis University, from which he is currently on leave. Dr. Schoenle’s research focuses on macro- and monetary economics, in particular on firms’ pricing behavior and the role of financial frictions in these processes. His research also spans behavioral economics and household finance, the economics of production networks, and international macroeconomics. Dr. Schoenle is a recipient of the 2012 Young Economist Award from the Austrian Economic Association, and his work has been funded by several National Science Foundation grants. He has been a research associate at the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, New York, Philadelphia, and St. Louis; a visiting scholar at Columbia University; a visiting researcher at Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance and at the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE); and a visiting scholar at Harvard University. He is a research associate at the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, a research fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research, and a visiting researcher at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. He holds an AB in economics and an AM in statistics from Harvard University and an MA and a PhD in economics from Princeton University.
Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine since 16 July 2020.
Kyrylo Shevchenko has been working in the financial sector for 27 years, including more than 10 years in the field of public finance. In 2009-2010 and then again in 2014, he worked as the First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Ukrgasbank JSB. In May 2015, he was elected as Chairman of the Board of Ukrgasbank JSB.
In 2009, Kyrylo Shevchenko was an advisor to the prime minister of Ukraine. Between 2006 and 2009, he chaired the State Mortgage Institution. Prior to that, he worked at Aval bank and at Finance and Credit bank, where he became Deputy Chairman of the Board. He started his career in banking in 1994 as an economist at Kharkiv branch of Ukrainian Credit Bank.
Mr Shevchenko graduated from Kharkiv National University of Economics with a degree in accounting and business analysis and from Drahomanov National Pedagogical University with a degree in ecology.
Solomiya Shpak is Assistant Professor at Kyiv School of Economics and Researcher at the National Bank of Ukraine. She obtained her PhD in Public Policy at George Mason University (USA) in 2020. She worked as a consultant at the World Bank and International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, DC.
Andrej Sokol is an economist at the European Central Bank, having previously worked as a senior economist at the Bank of England. Andrej's research interests include international finance, monetary economics, empirical macroeconomics and forecasting. He holds an MSc in Economics from Queen Mary University of London and MSc and BSc degrees in Management Engineering from Politecnico di Milano.
Deputy Governor of the NBU since March 2015. Dmytro Sologub is responsible for monetary policy, macroprudential policy to ensure financial stability, economic analysis, collection and analysis of statistics and reporting, and central bank research. In 2002, he started his career as a research associate at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER). From 2004, he worked as a research economist at the IMF Resident Representative Office in Ukraine. From 2007 to 2015, prior to joining the NBU, he was head of analysis and research at Raiffeisen Bank Aval PJSC.
Mr Sologub graduated from the Belarus National University with a major in Economic Theory. Later, he obtained a Master’s Degree in Economics (EERC) at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. He is a CFA Charterholder.
Hyun Song Shin Economic Adviser and Head of Research Hyun Song Shin took up the position of Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the BIS on 1 May 2014. Before joining the BIS, Mr Shin was the Hughes-Rogers Professor of Economics at Princeton University. In 2010, on leave from Princeton, he served as Senior Adviser to the Korean president, taking a leading role in formulating financial stability policy in Korea and developing the agenda for the G20 during Korea's presidency. From 2000 to 2005, he was Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics. He holds a DPhil and MPhil in Economics from Oxford University (Nuffield College) and a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the same university.
Ewa Stanisławska is economic advisor at the Research and Financial Innovations Department at Narodowy Bank Polski (National Bank of Poland). Her research interests include inflation expectations, use of survey data in macroeconomics and monetary policy transmission mechanism.
Johannes Stroebel is the David S. Loeb Professor of Finance and the Boxer Faculty Fellow at the New York University Stern School of Business. He joined NYU in 2013 from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he was the Neubauer Family Assistant Professor of Economics.
Professor Stroebel conducts research in climate finance, household finance, social network analysis, macroeconomics, and real estate economics. He has won numerous awards, including the AQR Asset Management Institute Young Researcher Prize and the Brattle Award for the best paper published in the Journal of Finance. He has also won an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship in Economics. Professor Stroebel is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Political Economy, the Review of Economic Studies, Econometrica, and the Journal of Finance. Professor Stroebel is also a member of the Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee at the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Professor Stroebel read Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at Merton College, Oxford, where he won the Hicks and Webb Medley Prize for the best performance in Economics. He earned a Ph.D. in Economics at Stanford University, where he held the Bradley and Kohlhagen Fellowships at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
Jacek Suda is Economic Advisor in the Research and Financial Innovations Department at the Narodowy Bank Polski. He earned his degree at Washington University in St. Louis in 2009. Before joining Narodowy Bank Polski in 2014, he was an economist at Banque de France and adjunct professor at the Paris School of Economics. His scientific interests include expectations formation and learning in macroeconomic models. His papers have been published in Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control and Macroeconomic Dynamics.
Oleksandr Talavera is a Professor of Financial Economics, University of Birmingham. He received his B.A. at Ostroh Academy (Ukraine), M.A. at EERC (Ukraine), M.A. at Boston College, and his Ph.D. at the European University Viadrina (Germany). Prior to joining the faculty at University of Birmingham, Sasha worked for Swansea University, University of Sheffield, Durham University, University of East Anglia, the Robert Gordon University, and DIW-Berlin. He is broadly interested in social media, online-prices, big data analytics, banking, international finance, and emerging market economies.
Małgorzata Walerych is Senior Economist at Narodowy Bank Polski, Research and Financial Innovations Department. Her research interests include Macroeconomics, Labour Economics and Monetary Economics.
Michael Weber joined Chicago Booth in 2014 as an Assistant Professor of Finance and was promoted to Associate Professor in 2018. He is also a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the Monetary Economics and Asset Pricing groups, Research Affiliate in the Monetary Economics and Fluctuations programme of CEPR, a member of the Macro Finance Society, a Research Professor at Ifo Institute and a research affiliate at the CESifo Research Network. He is also academic consultant for the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and several other central banks.
His research interests include asset pricing, macroeconomics, international finance, and household finance. His work on downside risk in currency markets and other asset classes earned the 2013 AQR Insight Award. He has published in leading economics and finance journals such as the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Political Economy, the Review of Financial Studies and the Journal of Financial Economics.
Francesco Zanetti is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford and the David Richards Fellow of Wadham College. He holds a PhD in Economics from Boston College, and a PhD in Economic Theory and Institutions from the University of Bologna. Before joining Oxford in September 2012, he spent eight years in the Bank of England, first as an Economist, Senior Economist and Advisor in the Monetary Analysis Section. He is a visiting scholar at the Bank of International Settlements, the Bank of England and provided technical support and training to more than forty central banks around the world. He held visiting teaching positions at the London School of Economics, London Business School, and the joint IMF Vienna Institute. His research interests are in the fields of Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics and Applied Econometrics. Among other topics, he has worked on labor market dynamics and the effect of structural reforms, the propagation of news shocks, the state dependence of fiscal multipliers, and the impact of unconventional policies. He is a recipient of the British Academy Mid-Career Fellowship Award for the academic year 2020-2021. His past research was supported by the British Academy, Leverhulme Foundation, the Australian Research Council, the Zengin Foundation, and the John Fell Fund. He serves as an associate editor for the Economic Journal, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Oxford Economic Papers, as a co-editor for Macroeconomic Dynamics, and as a member of the editorial board for Central Bank Review. His research has appeared in leading academic journals and policy forums.