On 15 December, the National Bank of Ukraine hosted the workshop Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Understanding the Causes and Consequences of a New Wave of Inflation. The Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) helped conduct the event for the second straight year.

The workshop convened more than 100 participants from different countries. Representatives of central banks, the academic community, international financial institutions, and think tanks from Ukraine, Italy, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, the United States, Canada, China, and other countries gave speeches during the workshop.


Key Takeaways

  • Inflation spikes are generally long-lasting. A premature celebration of victory over inflation generates risks.
  • High inflation poses a primary threat to the economy in the long run.
  • Central banks should pursue consistent forward-looking policies.




14:00 - 14:15

Opening remarks


  • Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor, National Bank of Ukraine
14:15 - 15:45

Session 1. Understanding the New Wave of Inflation


  • Moderated by
    Oleksandr Faryna, National Bank of Ukraine


  • Anil Ari, International Monetary Fund
    One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png


  • Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova, CESifo, CAMA
    Uncertainty and the Business Cycle When Inflation is High 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png


  • Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
    Forecasting Euro Area Inflation with Machine Learning Models 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png
15:45 - 16:00


16:00 - 17:00

Keynote speech


  • Athanasios Orphanides, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Enhancing Resilience with a Monetary Policy Rule 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png


  • Moderated by
    Eleonora Granziera, Norges Bank, EABCN
17:00 - 18:30

Session 2. Old and New Сhallenges to Central Bank Policy


  • Moderated by
    Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, National Bank of Ukraine


  • Yiliang Li, University of International Business and Economics
    The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png


  • Julien Bengui, Bank of Canada
    Inflation and Capital Flows


  • Nika Khinashvili, Geneva Graduate Institute
    Macroprudential Foreign Exchange Interventions 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png
18:30 - 20:00

Session 3. Costs and Benefits of Policy (In)Action


  • Moderated by
    Viktor Koziuk, West Ukrainian National University, Kyiv School of Economics


  • Tetiana Yukhymenko, National Bank of Ukraine
    The NBU’s Credibility in the Formation of Firms' Inflation Expectations 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png


  • Alexander Rodnyansky, University of Cambridge
    The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Banking System


  • Dubravko Mihaljek, Bank for International Settlements
    Inflation and Public Finances: An Overview 7a10b6ccc691e1af3c763ab08d83f4b9.png
20:00 - 20:10

Closing Remarks


  • Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Deputy Governor, National Bank of Ukraine